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Academic Articles
Regular Paper (Invited) Vol.2 (2010) p.149 - p.159
 

A Prediction Market Approach to Facilitating Consensus Building among Supply Chain Partners
 
Hajime MIZUYAMA and Toshiyuki KOMATSU
 
Kyoto University, Yoshidahonmachi, Sakyo-ku, Kyoto 606-8501, Japan
 
Abstract
How to facilitate the process of consensus building among the partners in a supply chain is a crucial issue. As an example of such a problem, this paper takes up perceptual mapping and develops a prediction market system for collectively determining the location of an object on a two-dimensional perceptual map. It introduces a new type of prediction security called SAPS (Square Area Prediction Security) and extends a widely used market making algorithm LMSR (Logarithmic Market Scoring Rule) for handling SAPS in a batch updating environment. This system feeds the location of the object back to the participants as the price distribution of SAPS, which is determined by the number of SAPS sold so far in each square area, and allows them to modify it through transactions of SAPS. The paper further conducts laboratory experiments to see whether the proposed system can support a group of people to build consensus on a perceptual map. As a result, it is observed that the variance of their subjective evaluations on the location of a specified object is reduced through operating the system but that the evolving consensus is not always captured properly by the price distribution. What causes this problem and how to fix it are also discussed.
 
Keywords
collective intelligence, consensus building, Delphi method, perceptual map, prediction markets
 
Full Paper: PDF EJAM Vol.2 pp.149-159 "A Prediction Market Approach to Facilitating Consensus Building among Supply Chain Partners"
Article Information
Article history:
Received 17 August 2010
Accepted 17 November 2010